Ukraine must be ready to export grain almost exclusively via its Danube River ports because Russia is effectively blocking Black Sea shipments, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said on Tuesday.

The United Nations and Turkey brokered a deal between Moscow and Kyiv last July on the safe passage of Black Sea grain to help tackle a global food crisis worsened by Russia’s invasion of its neighbour and a blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

Moscow has threatened not to extend the deal beyond July 18 unless a series of demands are met, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertiliser exports. It says that promises of help with those exports have not materialised.

“With the Russia effectively blocking the operation of the grain corridor, we need to be ready to receive almost the entire export volume of the new harvest through the Danube ports,” Dmytro Barinov, the sea ports authority’s deputy head, said on Facebook.

Ukraine is a major grain grower and exporter but production has fallen sharply since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ukraine’s grain output dropped to about 53 million tonnes in clean weight in the 2022 calendar year from a record 86 million tonnes in 2021. The ministry has said the crop could fall to 46 million in 2023.

Even with the reduced harvest, Ukraine will still need to export more than 30 million tonnes of grain, millions of tonnes of vegetable oils and oilseeds.

With a working grain corridor, about half of Ukrainian agricultural exports exits via Black Sea ports, while a quarter pass through its Danube ports and another quarter moves via the western border.

The seaport authority said this month three Ukrainian Danube river ports had exported a record 3 million tonnes of food in May. Danube River ports processed of 5.5 million tonnes of all cargo in 2021, industry sources said.

Ukrainian transport officials say export volumes could be higher if its Bystre Canal on the Danube is deepened. A senior Ukrainian official said last month Kyiv wanted to start work on deepening the canal as early as this year.

An end to the Black Sea grains deal would hit the Horn of Africa hard, aid officials said on Monday, warning that another increase in food prices would add to the tens of millions of people facing hunger.

Source: Reuters reported by Pavel Polityuk and edited by Timothy Heritage