MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO Gasoil) in the main world hubs) declined on March 9:

380 HSFO: USD/MT – 429.82 (-5.18)
VLSFO: USD/MT – 536.05 (-6.89)
MGO: USD/MT – 601.90 (-3.00)

Correlation between the Market Bunker Price Index (MBP) vs MABUX Digital Bunker Price Index (DBP) in four major hubs on Mar.09 demonstrated remained undercharging of 380 HSFO bunker grades in all selected ports in a range from minus 7 USD (Houston) to minus 21USD (Singapore). VLSFO is undercharged in all ports except of Houston in a range from minus 6 (Rotterdam) to minus 21USD (Fujairah). In Houston this kind of fuel is overcharged by 11 USD. MGO LS is also undervalued in all hubs except of Houston in a range from minus 23USD (Fujairah) to minus 40USD (Singapore). In Houston it is still overcharged (+15USD).

Meantime, world oil indexes continued to decrease on March 9.

Brent for May settlement decreased by $0.72 to $67.52 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for April fell by $1.04 to $64.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $3.51 to WTI. Gasoil for March delivery lost $8.25.

Today oil indexes continue to fall amid surprise U.S. oil inventories build last week.

According to the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. crude inventories rose 12.79 million barrels last week, after a build of 7.35 million barrels the previous week. Cushing inventories increased by 295,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories declined by about 8.5 million barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by about 4.8 million barrels. The official government inventory report due today is expected to show weekly U.S. crude supplies increased by about 816,000 barrels last week.

At the same time, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised 2021 forecasts for U.S. and global benchmark oil prices in its monthly report, pointing out that the recent decision by major oil producers to extend existing supply cuts through April have provided support for prices in the near term. The EIA boosted its 2021 West Texas Intermediate crude price forecast to $57.24 a barrel. It expects 2022 prices to average $54.75, up 6.2% from the previous forecast. For Brent crude, it also lifted this year’s forecast by 14% to $60.67 and next year’s to $58.51. The EIA also said it expects domestic oil production to average 11.15 million barrels per day this year, and it lifted its 2022 forecast to 12.02 million barrels per day.

We expect bunker prices can decline today. Prices for 380 HSFO may decrease by 3-5 USD, prices for MGO may lost 4-8 USD.