The Bunker Review was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated slight irregular changes on February 01:

380 HSFO: USD/MT – 363.83 (-1.36)
VLSFO: USD/MT – 460.75 (+0.71)
MGO: USD/MT – 516.17 (+1.35)

Correlation between the Market Bunker Price Index (MBP) vs MABUX Digital Bunker Price Index (DBP) in four major hubs on Feb.01 showed undercharging of 380 HSFO bunker grades in Rotterdam (-17USD), Singapore (-16USD) and Fujairah (-2USD). At the same time, in Houston 380 HSFO fuel was overcharged (+2USD). VLSFO is overcharged in all 4 hubs in a range of 4-25USD. MGO LS remained undervalued in all ports except of Houston (+ 11 USD).

Meantime, world oil indexes increased on February 01.

Brent for April settlement increased by $0.47 to $56.35 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for March rose by $1.35 to $53.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $2.80 to WTI. Gasoil for February delivery added $4.00.

Today oil indexes continue to rise as a strong market and expectations of a global economic recovery from COVID-19 spurred fuel demand recovery hopes.

OPEC crude production increased for a seventh month in January, after the group and its allies agreed to ease supply curbs further, but the growth was smaller than expected – up 160,000 bpd from December (25.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in January). Russian output increased in January but in line with the agreement on reducing production, while in Kazakhstan oil volume fell for the month. Both countries are members of the OPEC+ grouping that banded together to help support prices with production cuts. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s Joint Technical Committee is due to present its assessment to the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) that will meet on Wednesday. Saudi Aramco estimates that demand will return to pre-COVID-19 levels later in the year.

However, the outlook for Asian transport fuels has worsened, as the re-emergence of COVID-19 cases in the region sees restrictive measures such as lockdowns. This is also likely to spur more diesel and gasoline exports from China, the world’s largest fuel importer.

We expect bunker prices may demonstrate upward changes: 1-3 USD up for 380 HSFO, 2-4 USD up for MGO.